Bolivia’s future hangs in the balance as protestors overplay their hand
As protestors blockade the capital of La Paz, Bolivia edges closer to the brink of civil war, and what hope remains of restoring a temporary peace and order diminishes with each passing day.
A crisis over the division of the landlocked nation’s rich reserves of natural gas – which forced the resignation of former President, Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, in 2003 – looks set to topple another, and has the potential to rip the country in two. The indigenous protestors who have stormed La Paz over the last three weeks demand the nationalisation of the nascent industry, fearing that foreign intervention will ultimately be of little benefit to the country’s majority poor. They have a fair point: in 2000 the American company Bechtel attempted to privatise the water supply in Cochabamba, in Bolivia’s altiplano Mass civic unrest soon forced the multinational to abandon it’s plans.
The success of this ‘water war’, as it became known, reflected in part the growing organisation of the rural poor. The MAS, or Movement Towards Socialism, led by the charismatic Eva Morales, tapped into a deep-seated sense of injustice amongst the millions of Bolivians who are blighted by extreme poverty. Combined with the various unions of ‘cocaleros’, or coca-plant growers, this vast underclass soon became a formidable political institution. In the 2002 elections Morales finished a close second in the race for the presidency, and established a distinct presence in Congress for his party. The following year, it was he who organised the countrywide roadblocks that toppled his former rival. Despite a referendum organised by Lozada’s replacement, Carlos Mesa, which authorised the expropriation of the gas by foreign companies, civil unrest has periodically risen to boiling point. The most recent – and most serious – is the result of Mesa’s decision in May to attempt a compromise, taxing the foreign companies rather than attempting outright nationalisation.
For the protestors who have clogged the streets of La Paz, leading to sporadic clashes with police and the military, full nationalisation of the country’s gas industry is now all that will placate them. This reflects a development even further than what Evo Morales has publicly called for. There is a growing consensus amongst the poor that the market-led economic model on which the country has gingerly balanced for some twenty years is now hopelessly inadequate. Furthermore, Bolivia’s history is littered with sad tales of colonial exploitation. Once the richest area of the continent, the gold and silver of Bolivia’s fecund mountains were taken and used to fund the adventures of the Spanish royalty. Many indigenous people see natural gas as the last God-given resource of a once-wealthy country, and are determined to avoid yet another raping of the land. Thus, nothing short of full nationalisation – and a rewriting of Bolivia’s constitution to wean it off a market-directed economy and increase state control of natural resources.
However, the success of these most recent protests – as I write Mesa has submitted his resignation and a snap-election appears likely – is unlikely to give anything other than a short-lived fillip to the movement. A nationalised gas industry would leave Bolivia, which is already losing untold millions every day due to the unrest, facing hefty compensation lawsuits from BP and Petrosur, amongst others. The country risks the indifference of other, wealthy nations, who could simply walk away from any proposed deals. The extraction and utilisation of the gas is far too complex a project for Bolivia to afford in isolation. Furthermore, since the ruinous War of the Pacific in the late 19th century, Bolivia has lacked a coastline; any exportation of the natural gas would therefore have to be processed through a Chilean port. Despite the long-standing and vicious animosity Bolivians harbour towards their more prosperous neighbour, it would make sense to keep this option open. By nationalising the industry, Bolivia would be tying setting itself adrift instead of embracing the international capital that would be harnessed if handled adroitly.
Furthermore, the trouble in La Paz has exacerbated the country’s other major crisis. In the eastern lowlands, the more prosperous regions around the city of Santa Cruz – where much of the natural gas lies – have in recent months stepped up their claims for increased autonomy. In August they plan to hold a referendum on whether to allot themselves more power as a region, a move that is opposed by most of the country’s indigenous people. The situation in Santa Cruz demonstrates a fundamental schism within the country’s ethnic makeup, which could erupt if – as President Mesa fears – the country descends into civil war. The people of Santa Cruz are white, of European descent, and traditionally far wealthier than their largely indigenous western countrymen.
It seems that right now a quick election will be the only way to solve the immediate crisis. One possible result would be Evo Morales assuming the presidency, but what then? The eastern elites will hardly be overwhelmed with enthusiasm for an indigenous president, and would push on with their plans for autonomy. Another possibility is that Senate president Hormando Vaca Diez could replace President Mesa. He would most likely grant autonomy to Santa Cruz and crack down on the protestors, which Mesa has admirably refused to do. The viability of Bolivia as a unified country would be fatally undermined in either case. Internationally Bolivia would be tainted as an unstable nation of democratic questionability, hardly the atmosphere that would attract much-needed foreign capital. The White House would make great capital out of calling for political ‘freedom’ and, looking at the recent presidential shuffling in Ecuador, could use this as justification for its own intervention in the Andes. Right now, it is difficult to see how Bolivia can even stay together as a unified country, much less address the wildly varying concerns of its 9 million inhabitants. Time will tell whether this blighted nation will survive or be torn apart by the potential wealth that lies underneath its land.
A crisis over the division of the landlocked nation’s rich reserves of natural gas – which forced the resignation of former President, Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, in 2003 – looks set to topple another, and has the potential to rip the country in two. The indigenous protestors who have stormed La Paz over the last three weeks demand the nationalisation of the nascent industry, fearing that foreign intervention will ultimately be of little benefit to the country’s majority poor. They have a fair point: in 2000 the American company Bechtel attempted to privatise the water supply in Cochabamba, in Bolivia’s altiplano Mass civic unrest soon forced the multinational to abandon it’s plans.
The success of this ‘water war’, as it became known, reflected in part the growing organisation of the rural poor. The MAS, or Movement Towards Socialism, led by the charismatic Eva Morales, tapped into a deep-seated sense of injustice amongst the millions of Bolivians who are blighted by extreme poverty. Combined with the various unions of ‘cocaleros’, or coca-plant growers, this vast underclass soon became a formidable political institution. In the 2002 elections Morales finished a close second in the race for the presidency, and established a distinct presence in Congress for his party. The following year, it was he who organised the countrywide roadblocks that toppled his former rival. Despite a referendum organised by Lozada’s replacement, Carlos Mesa, which authorised the expropriation of the gas by foreign companies, civil unrest has periodically risen to boiling point. The most recent – and most serious – is the result of Mesa’s decision in May to attempt a compromise, taxing the foreign companies rather than attempting outright nationalisation.
For the protestors who have clogged the streets of La Paz, leading to sporadic clashes with police and the military, full nationalisation of the country’s gas industry is now all that will placate them. This reflects a development even further than what Evo Morales has publicly called for. There is a growing consensus amongst the poor that the market-led economic model on which the country has gingerly balanced for some twenty years is now hopelessly inadequate. Furthermore, Bolivia’s history is littered with sad tales of colonial exploitation. Once the richest area of the continent, the gold and silver of Bolivia’s fecund mountains were taken and used to fund the adventures of the Spanish royalty. Many indigenous people see natural gas as the last God-given resource of a once-wealthy country, and are determined to avoid yet another raping of the land. Thus, nothing short of full nationalisation – and a rewriting of Bolivia’s constitution to wean it off a market-directed economy and increase state control of natural resources.
However, the success of these most recent protests – as I write Mesa has submitted his resignation and a snap-election appears likely – is unlikely to give anything other than a short-lived fillip to the movement. A nationalised gas industry would leave Bolivia, which is already losing untold millions every day due to the unrest, facing hefty compensation lawsuits from BP and Petrosur, amongst others. The country risks the indifference of other, wealthy nations, who could simply walk away from any proposed deals. The extraction and utilisation of the gas is far too complex a project for Bolivia to afford in isolation. Furthermore, since the ruinous War of the Pacific in the late 19th century, Bolivia has lacked a coastline; any exportation of the natural gas would therefore have to be processed through a Chilean port. Despite the long-standing and vicious animosity Bolivians harbour towards their more prosperous neighbour, it would make sense to keep this option open. By nationalising the industry, Bolivia would be tying setting itself adrift instead of embracing the international capital that would be harnessed if handled adroitly.
Furthermore, the trouble in La Paz has exacerbated the country’s other major crisis. In the eastern lowlands, the more prosperous regions around the city of Santa Cruz – where much of the natural gas lies – have in recent months stepped up their claims for increased autonomy. In August they plan to hold a referendum on whether to allot themselves more power as a region, a move that is opposed by most of the country’s indigenous people. The situation in Santa Cruz demonstrates a fundamental schism within the country’s ethnic makeup, which could erupt if – as President Mesa fears – the country descends into civil war. The people of Santa Cruz are white, of European descent, and traditionally far wealthier than their largely indigenous western countrymen.
It seems that right now a quick election will be the only way to solve the immediate crisis. One possible result would be Evo Morales assuming the presidency, but what then? The eastern elites will hardly be overwhelmed with enthusiasm for an indigenous president, and would push on with their plans for autonomy. Another possibility is that Senate president Hormando Vaca Diez could replace President Mesa. He would most likely grant autonomy to Santa Cruz and crack down on the protestors, which Mesa has admirably refused to do. The viability of Bolivia as a unified country would be fatally undermined in either case. Internationally Bolivia would be tainted as an unstable nation of democratic questionability, hardly the atmosphere that would attract much-needed foreign capital. The White House would make great capital out of calling for political ‘freedom’ and, looking at the recent presidential shuffling in Ecuador, could use this as justification for its own intervention in the Andes. Right now, it is difficult to see how Bolivia can even stay together as a unified country, much less address the wildly varying concerns of its 9 million inhabitants. Time will tell whether this blighted nation will survive or be torn apart by the potential wealth that lies underneath its land.
posted by DN at 10:31 PM
1 Comments:
Thanks for your comment. Since I wrote this article the country has returned to some semblance of normality. Supreme Court Justice Eduardo Rodriguez was given the presidency - after the House and Senate leaders both rejected it - and his nomination was accepted by all sides. As a result the roadblocks and street protests have abated. President Rodriguez now has six months in which to hold a full general election. However the current quietude is likely to be short-lived, as the central issues - the nationalisation of the country's gas reserves, and the quest for autonomy in Santa Cruz - are nowhere closer to being resolved.
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