Bolivia: electoral process grinds to a halt

The fragile truce that has given a semblance of normality to Bolivia over the past few months could soon fall apart. The country, torn by internal strife and increasingly split between a more affluent, European-descended eastern population and the indigenous communities of the poor western highlands, has been rocked this week by a controversial court ruling, that seeks to redistribute the country’s parliament. Under the ruling, three highland provinces will lose their seats, with the wealthy province of Santa Cruz gaining up to four. In a country polarised along ethnic lines, it could be enough to provoke the indigenous groups to once again plunge Bolivia into chaos. In light of the ruling, on September 22nd, the Presidential elections scheduled for December 4th were postponed. It is just the latest in a series of false starts that have robbed the country of democratic legitimacy these three years and, unless it is quickly resolved, it is all too likely to drag this impoverished nation back into disaster.

Political groups whose popularity rests in the highlands are, understandably, aggrieved with the court’s timing. Movimiento al Socialismo, or MAS, led by Evo Morales, is the country’s largest indigenous group, and would stand to lose a considerable number of votes if the ruling is upheld. Morales, who narrowly lost the country’s last election in 2002 and is predicted to become the country’s next president, agrees broadly with the court’s decision – which is an attempt to implement data from a 2001 census rather than a 1991 one – but argues that it should not be carried out during an electoral process, and should be implemented after December’s vote. While his case is legitimate, his reasons are nothing if not self-interested: his presidential bid could well be wrecked by any parliamentary shift to the east, which is generally hostile to MAS.

Whether or not Morales takes the presidency will no doubt influence both the country’s relationship with the US, and, more importantly, Bolivia’s very future as a unified state. Morales has come under fire from the Bush administration, which has suggested thatt the MAS leader is nothing more than a puppet controlled by the Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, bete noire of the White House. Evidence of contact and collaboration between the two is thin on the ground, although Chavez has spoken in favour of the rights of indigenous groups throughout Latin America. If Morales is elected, it will further signify the leftwards shift that has spread across the region over the last five years, spurred on by a rejection of the neoliberal values and IMF-dictated social and economic policies that became rigid orthodoxy in the 1990s – broadly known as the “Washington consensus”. The vicious swerve away from US-concocted ‘remedies’ is something of concern for the United States. Republican Senator Mel Martin of Florida offers a typically condescending analysis, saying of Latin America that it is an area “where our U.S. influence is not what it was and I think this is a dangerous situation”.

However, a putative Morales presidency would rule over a far from united nation. One bone of contention that sparked civil unrest earlier this year was the desire of wealthy Santa Cruz province for regional autonomy. While the row has been quelled for now, and a referendum on the issue pencilled in for next year, the ascension of Morales – whom, to many in the east, represents a corrupt and interfering figure, all too willing to strip the region of its assets (potentially lucrative natural gas fields) – could spark the independence-leaning eastern province into action.

Morales’ main rival for the presidency, Jorge Quiroga, is running a well-orchestrated campaign that is reminiscent of American elections in its blitz of carefully-marketed PR. However, this could prove to be his undoing; Bolivians remember all too well the US-educated president Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, ousted from his job back in 2003, and exiled now in that Mecca for deposed Latin American leaders, Miami. Quiroga is, whether true or not, tainted by accusations of funding from the US. While the White House would undoubtedly prefer to see Quiroga installed as president, a Morales presidency currently looks more likely.

This is, of course, assuming that Congress and current President, Eduardo Rodriguez, find a way to restart the electoral cycle. Right now, Bolivia is becoming increasingly mired in a crisis of constitutional legitimacy. The fear is that, rather than being resolved through peaceful negotiation, the country’s impatient factions will decide that further anarchy is the only cure.